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PROJECT TOPIC  : THE ROLE OF NON-OIL EXPORT IN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA (1986 - 2013)

PROJECT PROPOSAL

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The importance of export to a nation’s economic growth and development cannot be over-emphasized. Export is a catalyst necessary for the overall development of an economy (Abou-Stait, 2005). The primary objective of export policies in any economy is to increase the level of economic activities. It follows, therefore that export policies should be directed to the sector in which the impact of an increase in export demand will be both desirable and large. It is a source of foreign exchange earning since trade transaction among nations are settled in foreign exchange.

Furthermore, a well developed export sector will provide employment opportunity for the people with the attendant reduction in social costs of unemployment (Abogan et al, 2014). Earnings from export will reduce the strains on the balance of payment position and even improve it. A rewarding export drive can turn a hitherto underdeveloped economy into a prosperous economy. Export help in increasing the level of aggregate economic activities through its multipliers effects on the level of national income (Usman and Salami, 2008). Income earned through exporting will help in increasing the level of demand within the economy.

The Nigerian economy has been and is currently being characterized by a reasonable degree of openness, hence its performance can be enhance through the development of the external sector. But Alimi and Muse (2013) argue that due to its present trends of the structure of Nigerian economy, the country may not be able to take advantage of increased openness to achieve trade induced growth. The Nigerian external sector has always been dominated by primary commodities (Adedokun, 2012), which have the well known basic characteristic of low price and income elasticity of demand, low growth of demand, terms of trade and instability of export earning (Iyoha and Oriakhi, 2002). This mono-culture situation brought untold hardship on the people of the country. For instance, from 1970 to date, oil exporting has constituted on the average of 90% of the total foreign exchange earnings (CBN, 2013). The adversity of the fluctuation in oil price has in no small measure stalled the developmental efforts of the various governments. For instance, fiscal operations of the government was disrupted in 2009 as the federally-collected revenue declined by 38.4% (CBN, 2009) in the year due largely to lower oil prices in the international market caused by the global economic meltdown This has made the Nigerian economy to swing from the “oil boom era”, as exemplified by the buoyant economy of the period with massive infrastructural development and the Udoji award followed by the “oil doom” period which arose from oil glut in the world oil market since 1981 only led to the neglect of the non-oil export productive base. This has led to panic measures by successive governments from the economic stabilization Act of 1982, Counter trade policy of Buhari/Idiagbon regime and the introduction of Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAP) by the Babangida Administration. Furthermore, in the wake of the recent global economic crisis, the government had to adopt policy measures to address the problems and prevent the crisis from throwing the economy into recession. The policy measures adopted were mainly on three broad fronts, namely monetary easing, fiscal easing, and trade policy.

The continued unimpressive performance of the non-oil sector and the vulnerability of the external sector thus dictate the urgent need for a reappraisal of the thrust and contents of the development policies and commitments to their implementation. Indeed, the need for a change in the policy focus and a shift in the industrialization strategy is imperative, if Nigerian economy is to be returned to the path of sustainable growth and external viability.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Although various factors have been adduced to Nigeria’s poor economic performance, the major problem has been the economy’s continued excessive reliance on the fortunes of the oil market and the failed attempts to achieve any meaningful economic diversification (Osuntogun et al., 1997), reflecting the effect of the so called “Dutch disease”. Rezaie (2013) opines that the development of non-oil exports is considered as a necessity, because it increases foreign exchange earnings and as a result, makes economic development programs that involve exchange costs, possible. Nwidobie (2014) posits that non-oil exports contribute to export diversification and serve as a channel for poverty reduction.

A report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in February 2013, revealed that oil prices are likely to decline by 25-40% over the next four years as a result of increased shale oil and gas production in the US. Besides, the renewed emphasis on the production of alternatives to fossil-fuel energy, such as solar, wind and bioenergy in the advanced economies, would reduce oil demand and oil revenue. The ripple effect will trickle down from a decline in oil revenue to a decline in government revenue, depletion of external reserves, pressure on the naira and overall macro economy.

The need to protect the economy from this imminent threat, correct the existing structural distortions and put the economy on the path of sustainable growth is therefore compelling. This raises the question of what else need to be done in order to diversify the economy and develop the non-oil sector in order to realize the potentials of the sector. This calls for new thoughts and initiatives, which is the essence of this project.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The objectives of the study are as follows:
(i) To examine the trend and composition of the non-oil export in Nigeria;
(ii) To investigate the extent of the contribution of non-oil export sector to the Nigerian economy;
(iii) To identify the factors that are responsible for the unimpressive performance of the non-oil sector of Nigeria.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The research questions to be examined in this study are as follows:
1. What is the trend and structure of the Nigeria’s non-oil export since 1986?
2. What impact does non-oil exports have on the economic growth of Nigeria?
3. What factors are responsible for the unimpressive performance of the non-oil sector of Nigeria and how can they be resolved?

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The research work will make use of the econometric approach in estimating the relationship between non-oil export and the Nigerian economic growth. The dependent variable is real Gross Domestic Product while the independent variable is the non-oil export. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique will be employed in obtaining the numerical estimates of the coefficients in different equations using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The OLS method is chosen because it possesses some optimal properties; its computational procedure is fairly simple and it is also an essential component of most other estimation techniques. Here, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shall be used as the proxies for the level of economic activities. The estimation period will cover 1986 to 2013.

The data for this study would be obtained mainly from secondary sources, particularly from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) publications such as the CBN Statistical Bulletin, CBN Economic and Financial Review Bullion, CBN monthly reports, CBN Annual Reports and Statements of Accounts of various years.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The significance of this study are as follows:
1. It would provide an econometric assessment of the performance of the Nigerian non-oil export in relation to the gross domestic product;
2. The study would also identify the factors that are responsible for the poor performance of the non-oil export in Nigeria.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This project work focuses on the role of the export sector in the economic growth and development of Nigeria, specifically on the role of the non-oil export. The causes and consequences of the neglect of the non-oil export shall be discussed in detail as well as the trend examined since 1986 in order to note its growth. Besides, the contribution of the non-oil export to the economic growth of Nigeria shall be investigated empirically with data spanning from 1986 to 2013.

PLAN OF THE STUDY
This project shall be divided into five chapters. The first chapter provides the background of the subject matter justifying the need for the study. Chapter two shall present related literature concerning the role of non-oil export in economic growth. The structure of non-oil export of Nigeria during the pre and post SAP era shall also be discussed. The research methodology shall then be stated in chapter three while data presentation and analysis shall be made in chapter four. Concluding comments in chapter five shall reflect on the summary, conclusion and recommendations based on the findings of the study.


REFERENCES
Abogan, O. P.; Akinola, E. B. and Baruwa, O. I. (2014) “Non-oil export and Economic growth in Nigeria (1980-2011)”. Journal of Research in Economics and International Finance (JREIF). Vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 1-11.
Abou-Stait, F. (2005) “Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An Application of Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Egypt, 1977-2003”. African Development Bank, Economic Research Working Paper. No 76, July.
Adedokun, A. J. (2012) “Oil Export and Economic Growth: Descriptive Analysis and Empirical Evidence from Nigeria”. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences. Vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 46-58.
Alimi, S. R. and Muse, B. O. (2013) “Export - Led Growth or Growth – Driven Exports? Evidence from Nigeria”. British Journal of Economics, Management and Trade. Vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 89-100.
Central Bank of Nigeria (2009) Annual Report for the Year Ended 31st December. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Central Bank of Nigeria (2013) Annual Report for the Year Ended 31st December. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.
Iyoha, M. A. and Oriakhi, D. (2002) Explaining African Economic Growth Performance: The Case of Nigeria. A Revised Interim Report on Nigerian Case Study prepared for the African Economic Research Consortium Research, May.
Nwidobie, B. M. (2014) “Growth in Nigeria’s Non-Oil Export Finance and Non-Oil Export Performance: A Correlational Analysis”. International Journal of Business and Social Research (IJBSR). Vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 31-39.
Osuntogun, A., Edordu, C. C. and Oramah, B. O. (1997) “Potentials for diversifying Nigeria’s non-oil exports to non-traditional markets”. AERC Research Paper. No. 68, November.
Rezaie, M. (2013) “Factors Affecting Non-Oil Exports”. Kuwait Chapter of Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review. Vol. 2, no. 5, pp. 17-23.
Usman, O. A. and Salami, A. O. (2008) “The Contribution of Nigerian Export-Import (NEXIM) bank towards Export (non-oil) Growth in Nigeria (1990-2005)”. International Business Management. Vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 85-90.

PROJECT PROPERTIES
Project Status
Available
Number of Chapters
5
Number of Pages
93
Number of Words
14,946
Number of References
79
Project Level
B.Sc.
Price
N10,000 - Ten Thousand Naira (Non-Negotiable)
Abstract, Regression Data and Results are included
M.Sc. version of this project is available - CLICK HERE
How to Pay for this Project . . . .CLICK HERE

Keywords: nigeria economic growth, economic growth in nigeria, nigerian economic growth, exporting to nigeria, economic growth statistics, economic growth data, sources of economic growth

 

 

 

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